Gas verses Kala Bagh dam.

REVISITING THE KALABAGH DAM IN LIGHT
OF THE CURRENT GAS CRISIS
By Arshad H Abbasi
- SDPI-Islamabad
ahabasi@gmail.com 0333-5144405
The topic of the Kalabagh Dam in any political or academic discourse is almost inevitably
accompanied by the controversies that surround it. This particular exercise is not intended to revisit the controversies or conclude a final decree on the issue. In fact isolating the construction of the Kalabagh Dam from the many political controversies that distinguish it, this paper attempts to bring forth the technical data and key facts of the Kalabagh project which sank into insignificance due to the more notorious and sensational political issues characterizing the project. The failure to initiate the Kalabagh Dam dealt a severe blow to hydropower development in the country and simultaneously increased the dependency on natural gas. The depletion of gas reserves in recent times has inspired frantic attempts to dispel the energy crisis. Imported gas is being considered as a potential remedy and work is already underway to developed pipelines stretching from Iran. Given this scheme of things, it is a worthy to revisit the rationale that skewed the country’s dependency on natural gas and consequently diffused efforts at exploiting the vast indigenous reserves of hydropower. The issue of Kalabagh Dam is invoked for the proposed construction of the project coincided with the rapid
exploitation of indigenous gas reserves and while the construction of Kalabagh Dam got delayed and eventually shelved, the development of natural gas was undertaken with a religious fervor. In retrospect, this proved to be an unsustainable option that has had far reaching adverse impacts on the economy and lives of the people of Pakistan.
The Current Gas Crisis
The depleting indigenous reserves of natural gas has plummeted the country in a spiral of energy crisis. By the mid 1980’s, the power sector was being reconstructed to accommodate the extensive supply of natural gas. Consequently, natural gas displaced other fuel sources to emerge as the dominant source reining the energy mix. By 2009, its share in the energy supplied stood at 48.03% and was accounting for 34.3% of the electricity generated. By 2007, the per capita gas consumption ranked stood at 186.959 cu m per capita, ranking Pakistan as the73rd greatest consumer of natural gas in the world, ahead of all its South Asian counterparts. Additionally, according to the International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles, as of December 2008, Pakistan has the world’s highest number of vehicles running on compressed Natural Gas(CNG). The acute dependency on natural gas was fostered by structural changes inspired by government policy and plans and consequently led to the rapid depletion of the finite gas reserves. Today not only has the shortfall between gas demanded and supplied reached alarming heights of 700 MMCFD but it is predicted that even with the generous
expectation of new discoveries of reserves, it will be almost impossible to maintain even the present production for long.
The euphoria at the discovery of domestic gas reserves was based on the low costs associated with power generation from natural gas. Since its inception, Pakistan has been struggling to achieve energy security and to many, natural gas appeared as a panacea to the country’s energy situation. Provision of energy is inextricably linked to development and it was hoped that natural gas would fuel the country’s economic growth and embark it on a path to achieve its developmental goals. The operation
of these dynamics thus initiated a series of structural changes that made the power sector increasingly inclined towards natural gas. In retrospect, this move was a highly unsustainable one as the finitude of the natural gas reserves made it an unreliable source of energy in the long term. The hasty developments in natural gas came at the cost of exploiting other indigenous and renewable sources of
Key Points:
1. 161 billion CFT of
gas reserves have been
utilized annually to
produce the amount of
energy produced by
Kalabagh Dam
2. 2737 billion CFT
of gas, 6.17% of the total
reserves would have
been preserved from
1993-2009 if Kalabagh Dam
was operational
3. Extension of gas availability
to the transport sector by
31 years and to the
household sector by
12.785 years had Kalabagh
Dam been built
4. By 2010, Rs 83 billion
could have been saved in
electrical generation if
natural gas was displaced
as means of generating
electricity by hydropower
from Kalabagh Dam
5. By 2010, Rs. 128.157
billion could have been
saved in electrical
generation if Kalabagh
Dam had displaced oil as
means of generating
electricity
6.
2
energy which consequently lagged behind. This scheme of affairs not only led to rapid depletion of gas reserves but also
ensured that other sources of energy namely hydropower were not developed to the extent to cater to energy demands as
gas shortages began to emerge.
The Kalabagh Dam
Hydropower is a natural option for energy generation in Pakistan given its vast potential of 56 000 MW and history of
usage thus shortly after independence, major strides were made in harnessing the potential of this renewable source of
energy. Along with a series of hydropower projects, the initiation of the multipurpose large dams at Tarbela and Mangla
were seen as milestones in the hydropower development in the country. Through these dams, cheap, reliable energy was
made readily available which in turn fueled the development processes in the country. The Tarbela dam alone, which was
completed in 1997, had by December 2007 reaped benefits totaling Rs. 221,902 million for the national economy which is
more than 13.5 times the original cost of the project. After the success of Tarbela and Mangla Dam, the next project in the
pipeline was the construction of the Kalabagh Dam which was due to be in operation by 1993. Despite the completion of
feasibility studies and initial assessments of the project, the Kalabagh Dam never entered the construction phase. The
proposed project was marred by political conflicts and political rivalries which inspired such controversy that despite the
resolve of certain actors to push the project forward, the venture entirely collapsed. This was a major setback for
hydropower development in the country and it came amidst the almost ecstatic fervor which characterized the
exploitation of gas reserves. The Kalabagh Dam would have been instrumental in preserving the finite gas reserves,
saving costs of electricity generation and diffusing the cost of damage incurred due to the gas shortfall that
eventually unfolded. Yet these factors sank into comfortable insignificance as the country became attuned and heavily
reliant on energy from natural gas.
Gas Preservation
The proposed Kalabagh Dam was to become operational by 1993 and its total annual production would have equaled 11,
400 GWH. The conjunctive operation of Kalabagh and Tarbela will enable Tarbela to generate 336 million KWh of
electricity in addition to its existing power production. Thus total power generation would be 111736 KWh. However as
the project never entered the construction phase, the energy which Kalabagh Dam would have supplied was met through
the exploitation of gas reserves. To produce the same amount of energy that Kalabagh Dam would have produced, 161
billion CFT of gas reserves have been utilized annually. Consequently if Kalabagh Dam had been operational in 1993 as
had been proposed, by 2010 2737 billion CFT of gas would have been preserved. Given that even generous estimates of the
gas reserves place its potential at 54 trillion CFT of which 25 trillion CFT has already been utilized by 2009, the Kalabagh
Dam would have preserved close to 13.87% of the 25 trillion extracted reserves and 6.17 % of the total reserves of this
finite and exceedingly valuable energy source. Of the total gas consumed from 1993 to 2009, the construction of the
Kalabagh Dam would have saved maximum of 2.7 trillion CFT from the consumption of 10.9 trillion CFT; almost 24.77%
of the total gas consumed during this period.1
An overview of the gas consumption by sector reveals the household, power, transport and commercial sectors as the
primary users of gas.
Table 1: Gas Consumption by Sector from 1993-2009
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan
**consumption from 1998-2009 as CNG only came into vogue after 1998
1 In billion CFT, the construction of the Kalabagh Dam would have saved maximum of 3, 329.705 billion CFT from the consumption of 10, 990.41 billion
CFT.1
Household Power Transport Commercial Fertilizer Cement Total
Gas consumption 1993-
2009 in billion CFT
2349.1
5017.9
323.61**
374.4
2780.2
145.2
10, 990.41
3
The construction of the Kalabagh Dam would have effectively diffused dependence on gas in all sectors save for
household and transport. The structural composition of the household and transport sector would demand a persistent
supply of gas for example to operate gas heaters in domestic households and CNG pumps installed in cars. By 2008-09,
the gas consumed by the household sector stood at 214.1 billion CFT and by transport at 88.24 billion CFT. With the
construction of the Kalabagh Dam, the energy demands of other sectors could be met through hydropower relieving the
burden on natural gas.
Consequently, if natural gas was exclusively being used only in the household and transport sector, its supply could have
been extended to last for a longer period. The closure of CNG stations and load shedding of gas supply which is leading
to great social unrest today could have effectively been averted. Based on the most recent consumption figures of 2008-
09, exclusive use of natural gas preserved through the construction of Kalabagh in the transport sector would have
ensured its constant supply for another 37.7 years. Similarly, the household supply could have been maintained for
another 15.5 years.
Table 2: Gas Preservation in the event that Kalabagh Dam had been built
Household Transport
No. of Years that Gas
reserves would be
available after 2009
12.78 Years
31. years
This would have bought greater time to initiate programs to ensure the constant supply of gas whilst also develop other
sources that could diffuse the demand for gas. Work on the gas pipeline extending from Iran has only recently been
initiated and given that it would not be completed at least till 2014 provided that no further international sanctions are
levied on Iran, gas shortages will continue to wreck havoc in the country. The exploration of options such as solar
heaters, ethanol fuel production, solar cookers which could potentially reduce the demand from within the transport and
household sector for gas are still in their pilot phases, taking years before they are mainstreamed into the power sector.
Moreover, the current energy crisis that extends to include electricity production is likely to persist as no major alternate
to gas has been developed yet. As a consequence, the pressure on the depleting gas reserves will further be augmented
leading not only to their more rapid decline but also limit its availability to all sectors of the economy.
Saving Cost of Generating Electricity
Despite lower costs associated with electricity generation from hydropower, natural gas displaced it as the primary
source of energy for electricity generation. By 2007-2008, natural gas contributed to 34.3% of electricity generated while
hydropower constituted a 30% in the electricity generation mix. When contrasted with the cost per unit of electricity,
this scheme of affairs seems to be an undesirable option for a country already embedded in a fiscal crisis. Even if capital
costs are included, electricity from hydropower still retains a cost per unit which is much lower than natural gas. The
lowered cost of electricity generation through hydropower should have itself have served as the rationale for keeping the
contribution of natural gas minimal and thus not only saving costs of electricity generation but also preserving the finite
resource.
The Kalabagh Dam producing 11, 400 KWH of energy by 2010 could have Rs 76.8 billion if the energy was exclusively
directed to produce electricity. These savings would be a consequence of the much higher cost of producing the same
amount of electricity from natural gas. Additionally, oil which constitutes 32.3 % of the electricity generation mix also has
House
Hold Commercial Cement Fertilizer Power Industrial Transport
Gas consumption 2009
in billion CFT
214.1 35.5 4.8 201.1 404.1 319 88.24
4
a higher cost and if electricity from the Kalabagh Dam was used to replace electricity from oil, the savings from that
would have amounted to Rs. 124.5 billion.
Table 3: Savings in Cost of Generating Electricity if Kalabagh Dam had been built
Kalabagh Dam Natural Gas RFO
Total Cost in Rs of
generating 11, 736 GWH
4342320000/
4.34 Billion
83442960000/
83 billion
132499440000.
132.49 billion
Savings in the event of Kalabagh Dam operation
79100640000/
Rs-79.11 billion
1281571200/
Rs-128.157 billion.
This costly generation of electricity contributed to the circular debt fiasco that overtook electrical companies in the
country, contributed to financially destabilizing WAPDA, led to frequent long hours of electrical cuts, stunted industrial
growth and restricted the expansion of the grid. The additional effect on extensive use of natural gas further aggravated
the plight of the people as gas shortages became more frequent.
Damage Incurred Due to Gas Shortages
The effects of the gas shortages have been catastrophic for the population of Pakistan upsetting the socio-economic
landscape of the entire country. Frequent unavailability of CNG, load shedding of gas, rising electricity tariffs, long hours
of power cuts have emerged a recurring phenomenon throughout the country aggravating the plight of the common
man. The winter of 2010 is witnessing almost daily strikes by local populations against the frequent closure and load
shedding of gas in different parts of Pakistan. In addition to this, the effect on the industrial sector of gas shortages has
been debilitating as insufficient and unpredictable power supply has led to stunted industrial growth. The overwhelming
cost of damages quoted by different industries is evident of the adverse effects of gas shortages in this sector. Energy
sensitive industries have especially fallen prey to the inadequate power and gas supply, with many industries been forced
to shut down while others increasingly warning the government that they will suffer the same fate if gas supply is not
made available. The textile sector alone is incurring damages of $500-800 billion monthly and endangering around 1.5
million jobs. The effects on the industrial sector will have long term consequences as Pakistan is already witnessing
rampant poverty, rising unemployment, lowest rate of savings and the highest decline in investment. In the power sector,
utility companies and rental power plants which were being run on gas are also dangerously short on gas supply. As the
gas shortages persist, it is expected to further worsen the energy crisis which will continue to spiral the country in a
scheme of underdevelopment. As Pakistan became more dependent on natural gas, it also increased its vulnerability to
its finite supply the consequences of which have become glaringly evident today. While there is no one comprehensive
figure that could estimate the damages incurred by gas shortages and its subsequent impacts, it’s safe to say that the gas
crisis has emerged as a major hurdle to secure development goals envisioned by the people of Pakistan.
It must be noted that the construction of the Kalabagh Dam alone could not have operated to diffuse the impacts of the
gas crisis; at best it would have only delayed the onset of the crisis. However having said that, it should be recognized
that the development of hydropower resources including dams like Kalabagh Dam would have been
instrumental in evading this crisis altogether.
Flood Alleviation
Kalabagh Dam is the best and the most effective tool to Save Sindh from menace of Flood
Irrigation Water Supplies
Average benefits of additional irrigation supplies of the project are estimated at Rs. 50 Billion per annum.
5
Policy Recommendations
1. Telemetering system to ensure transparent water management between provinces in Pakistan. One of the
chief factors of the closure of the Kalabagh Dam project was the trust deficit between the provinces which led to claims
of ‘water stealing.’ Further expansion of hydropower critically depends on fostering an atmosphere of trust between
provinces so that the mutual benefits of hydropower can be realized. One of the most basic schemes to this end is to
ensure the installation of a telemetering system on the river flows so that domestic water management is done in a
transparent and equitable fashion.
2. Extensively expand the use of hydropower and raise its share in the overall energy mix of the country.
Pakistan is endowed with vast reserves of hydropower of which only 13% have been utilized to date. The technical
expertise and suitable terrains for hydropower development are available in the country making hydropower a rational
option to cater to energy demand. In addition to this, hydropower plants last longer and ensure a reliable, efficient and
cheap source of energy. The use of hydropower to cater to energy needs is a sustainable option for not only is it
renewable, it also produces no greenhouse gas emissions.
3. Revise the hydro-thermal mix ratio in electrical production as it is the most cost effective means of
generating electrical power especially when contrasted with thermal fuels such as oil and gas. This could save billions of
costs associated with electrical production of thermal sources and contribute to preserving the diminishing reserves of
natural gas, making more gas available to other sectors where the use of gas cannot be substituted.
4. Ensure timely implementation of hydropower projects that are under construction and in the pipeline.
Further delays in the completion of hydropower projects would only operate to increase the intensity of the current
energy crisis. The timely implementation of hydropower projects is especially crucial as the exploitation of coal reserves
or the import of natural gas which could serve as alternates to the depleting gas reserves would take years before coming
into operation. Current delays caused by corruption, negligence and insufficient efforts should be addressed immediately
5. Extensive use of CDM to finance Renewable Energy and Hydropower projects in the country which could
be instrumental in reducing the burden of capital costs to the government. The Clean Development Mechanism [CDM]
falls under the international regime of carbon trading which allows developing countries to avail carbon credits for
investments in clean technologies. As high capital cost are associated with expansive use of renewable energy and large
hydropower projects, the use of CDM, which has been limited in the country, could diffuse much of the high costs
6. Use of Renewable Energy apart from hydropower could be play a vital role in reducing the pressure on thermal
sources of energy. In addition to the host of advantages offered by renewable energy, it could provide decentralized
energy in some cases while also contribute to the on grid applications. Yet the vast potential of renewable energy sources
remains untapped and unexplored. The use of solar cookers, solar heaters, solar dryers, biomass, and waste to energy
could potentially reduce the dependency on natural gas particularly in the domestic sector. Additionally, the use of wind
energy, small hydro and Solar PV technology has the potential of contributing to the grid.
Conclusion
Fostering an acute dependency on a finite source of energy was an unsustainable move; undermining the development of
other renewable sources of energy by focusing attention almost exclusively on thermal energy had catastrophic impacts
with long term consequences. The use of indigenous natural gas reserves could not be avoided nor could their eventual
depletion be escaped however the magnitude of the current gas and energy crisis could have been prevented. This could
have been achieved if adequate efforts had been directed towards developing other renewable sources of energy while
simultaneously exploiting gas reserves. In the absence of such a scheme of affairs, exclusive attention was directed to
using natural gas resulting in a rapid depletion of the finite reserves without any contingency plans to cope with energy
demands in sight. Hydropower, with its vast reserves and low cost of energy generation, would have been a rational
option to not only diffuse the depletion of gas reserves but also serve as a viable energy source to replace natural gas as
the latter’s reserves diminished. The construction of Kalabagh Dam alone would have contributing to delaying and
abating the gas shortages today. In addition to this, it would have saved much of the cost of electrical generation and
diffused the magnitude of damages incurred due to the present gas crisis. The lessons learnt from Kalabagh Dam
stipulate that while gas shortages might have been inevitable, the gas crisis was not. Development of the hydropower
sector could not only acted as a buffer to the rising energy demands in times of declining gas shortages but would have
6

Save Murree Hills

How Murree Hills Distorted
A legacy of British period, the colonial architecture has been spoiled during the era of two Nazim of Murree. The beauty of Murree hills spoiled and damaged due to the alleged illegal construction of hotels for greed. During the British time, one side of The Mall was declared ‘green belt’ and all kinds of constructions were prohibited to save the belt, and the ban is still in place. The installation of bogus board outside the under-construction hotel encouraged illegal constructions in Murree.The calmness, serenity and fresh air, once associated with the hill station, are no longer available there, because of single person who laid the stone of illegal buildings in 1999 and perfect precedence for other to fallow “roll model”.During Nawaz regime, the Khurshid Abbasi submitted a plan to construct twelve story building to boost tourism. Local Municipal authority, out rightly rejected its proposal but the intelligent device a unique mechanism to construct its hotel “Unique height” by executing work after officer hours and during holidays. By this way he managed to complete the seven storey Hotel.When Nawaz Sharif came to know about this irregularity, he instructed the local authorities to demolish the first illegal building immediately. Khurshid Abbasi, with delay approached the court of laws, first civil judge, civil court rejected his appeal and then he proceeded to higher courts ….. finally his case was reached to supreme court of Pakistan.Supreme court of Pakistan of constituted a full bench comprising Mr. Nasir Aslam, Muawar Ahmed Mirza and Abdur rehman khan against the appeal Civil Petition number 1029 of 1999 .The full bench deiced the case in favor of Municipal committee Murree and ordered to demolish is hotel. The history of whole case was published in Pakistan Laws Journal [the official gazette of GOP] under the title PLJ 2000 SC 1085. But unfortunately after few months General Musharraf took the charge as CEO of the country and Khurshid Abbasi was the most jubilant person.
. Later same Khurshid Abbasi became the Naizm of Murree. Khurshid Abbasi completed his hotel “Unique Heights” immediately resumed construction, completed it and is running it as a business venture - in gross violation both of the Buildings Act as well as the Supreme Court orders, demonstrating not only contempt for the law but also contempt of Court Naib Nazim Murree, once reminded him about Naib Nazim Murree, once reminded him about illegal construction [letter attached]
It is interesting to note that on one hand large scale irregularities were committed, and on the other, the TMA allowed the owner of the building in question to lay the sewerage line by digging up. It would be the test case for the TMA whether it takes action against 162 buildings declared dangerous and illegally constructed by the administration itself as the Supreme Court had ordered to demolish them within a period of two months in the Human Right Case (No.4494/2006) filed by Rado.According to building by-laws did not permit to raise any construction above two-storey in Murree, as it was deemed unsafe for the human beings and environment of the popular hill station.
It is mentioned here that a large number of illegal buildings were constructed during the last eight years with the connivance of the staff and authorities of TMA.
Violation of Building Bye Laws in Murree
The beautiful and scenic city of murree which has been brutally ruined by the past Tehsil Municipal Administration is portraying a horrible picture now a days. The Supreme court of Pakistan passed an order of demolishing the illegally constructed buildings, raised in violation of building bye laws, by TMA within a period of 3 months, during the year 2006,w.e.f the judgment day and report back to the Registrar SC, to implement the supremacy of law.
Unfortunately after departure of the then CJ Mr Iftikhar Ch. On 9th March 2007, the case was manipulated by the Tehsil Nazim Sardar Saleem to the effect that a judgment was passed by the double bench setting aside the case on pretext that matter would be probed as and when required.
This state of affairs has led the beautiful city and its stake holders to an uncertain destiny where there is no way not only to demolish the buildings but also to stop new mush room growth of concrete structures.
The current government of the Punjab also seems helpless, as the pace of growth of buildings is yet the same as to the past, perhaps due to the influential personnel of the present regime of PMLN in Punjab. The British architecture of the city which was already at the end, seems to eliminate fully by the coming days. This scenario is demanding the stake holders in the Pakistan specifically and in the world generally to give it a serious thought and formulate a movement to fix up the forces involved in illegal construction and to save the natural beauty of the queen.

The Taliban and Education

The Taliban and Education

Despite, various appeal by managements of private schools also appealed to the militants to take back their decision in the interest of thousands of girl students and hundreds of female teachers, many of them the lone breadwinners of their families.
The Taliban, led by Maulana Fazlullah-led militants, had Dec 24 asked all government and private schools to close down girls’ classes by Jan 15. Additionally, 84,248 girl students of state-run institutions are unlikely to attend school due to the fear of Taliban militants, who now control the entire area, despite the resolve of the local administration to reopen the schools.
‘The Swat TTP reviewed the decision a couple of weeks ago with Maulana Fazlullah in the chair. They did not withdraw their threat, but softened their stance and allowed girls to attain education up to the fourth grade. However, the chief of the terrorists renewed the threat of bombing educational institutions if any school continued higher education for girls as revealed by various news agencies. .
Taliban militants have already destroyed 172 schools - 122 for girls and 50 for boys -depriving 40,646 students of education. These include 23,308 girls and 17,338 boys. This apart, 18 schools have been occupied by the armed forces engaged in operations against the militants. This has impacted 7,039 students.